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China needs a national strategy to reshape the paper industry introduction in traditional industries, paper industry is a characteristic industry no matter compared with raw material industry, energy industry or general processing industry. Under the constraints of China's specific system and resources, the characteristics of paper industry also show quite distinct Chinese characteristics: for example, it is an industry that can choose different raw material routes, That is, the wood fiber (from wood) route and the grass fiber (from reed, bamboo, bagasse, wheat straw, straw, hemp, etc.) route. Choosing different routes not only has a far-reaching impact on the problems to be solved and their status in the development of the paper industry, but also has great differences. This feature is similar to the fact that different choices of source structure will profoundly affect (determine) the face of the energy industry and then profoundly affect the entire national economy. It is also similar to the fact that some chemical products (such as engineering plastics PVC) have different industrial conditions due to different process routes (such as calcium carbide acetylene line or ethylene line). It is completely opposite to the "mainstream route" of the world paper industry, which is dominated by wood fiber (accounting for 95%). China's paper industry has followed the grass fiber route since the first five year plan period (at present, wood fiber accounts for only about 10%). Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why the so-called "dispute over vegetation" runs through the development process of China's paper industry for decades. The paper industry may become one of the biggest disasters that seriously damage the ecological environment on a large scale, because it is one of the largest consumers of wood resources and one of the main sources of environmental pollution (biological water pollution), and it may also become one of the main business entities to improve the ecological environment, because it needs to create Operate a large area of artificial forest land (this report ignores the possible negative impact of a large area of forest land with a single tree species on the ecology). And can carry out high standard treatment of pollution (the treatment technology of wood pulp black liquor has been quite mature and practical). The paper industry has the characteristics of both positive and negative effects on the ecological environment due to its internal demand for operation. It is difficult to find similar examples in other industries. This characteristic of the paper industry makes it an important part and typical industry for China to implement the "sustainable development strategy". As a result, most experts in China's paper industry have been shouting and fighting for the road of "combination of forest and paper" all their lives, but so far they have achieved little. In terms of economies of scale, paper industry is also a typical industry with two sides. On the one hand, whether in terms of factory scale or company operation scale, modern paper industry has extremely significant economies of scale. The "Jinguang group", which will be mentioned many times below, has more than ten million mu of afforestation plan to invest in the paper industry in China, and the lower limit of the scale of pulp and paper mills is 600000 tons, which is a convincing case. On the other hand, the paper industry may also be subject to fairly decentralized small-scale management. The paper industry is an ancient industry, and its economies of scale are characterized by the great improvement of environmental protection and ecological requirements with the progress of technology, And gradually strengthened by such factors as increasingly becoming a bulk commodity in international trade. Large scale operation is the characteristic of modern paper industry. However, in the face of the demand for some medium and low-grade paper varieties, small paper mills still have considerable benefits in China when the manufacturers do not pay enough or even do not pay the cost of pollution at all. There are many industries with similar characteristics. Even the automobile manufacturing industry with the most significant economies of scale, under the "protection" of China's high customs rate, there are too many manufacturers, and they are not allowed to stop. This characteristic of paper industry makes it easy to go to the extreme of scattering, disorder, poor and dirty. Comparing the relationship among income, price and demand, we find that paper is a commodity with small price demand elasticity; For developing countries, the income demand of paper is relatively large in a fairly long development stage. The conclusion drawn from these two characteristics is very important for China to formulate the development strategy of paper industry. The growth of China's demand for paper may far exceed the "Ninth Five Year Plan" of China's paper industry and the forecast of its development prospects in 2010. It is not very far away for China to become the world's largest paper consumer. China's dependence on paper imports may grow at a faster rate, so that not only paper (including pulp) can The import of paper has become an important factor affecting foreign trade and foreign exchange, which can be eliminated by slightly loosening the overflow valve shell or replacing the spring, and the large fluctuation of the price of paper (due to the price movement characteristics determined by the small price demand elasticity, which are fully proved by the international paper price data) has become an important factor affecting the stability and security of the national economy. The above characteristics of the paper industry make the paper industry one of the industries that most need the tangible hand of the state to manage, especially under the conditions of China's specific institutional environment and resource constraints. First of all, at the level of the entire national economy, the state needs to formulate plans for land, forests, environment, etc., and has stated that laws and other means should be used to formulate constraints for the development of the paper industry, guide the development direction of the paper industry, and provide space for the full development of the paper industry. Secondly, at the industry level, the state needs to formulate the development strategy of the paper industry, determine the industrial support policies and coordinate the relationship between the paper industry and forestry and other vertical or horizontal industries. When necessary, industrial organization and resource allocation can be used to design the host of the experimental machine, which has the characteristics of beautiful appearance, easy operation, stable and solid performance, so as to promote the modernization process of the paper industry. At a time when China's market mechanism is far from mature, the state's management at these two levels is indispensable. After the market mechanism is relatively perfect, the state's management at the first level will continue and even strengthen, and the state's intervention at the second level may also be used; If the industry of the enterprise is not enough to realize the national strategic interests and strategic will, or the market regulation is not enough to solve some major problems in the development of the paper industry. Since the reform and opening up, the development of China's paper industry has been in a completely non strategic state. Due to the particularity of their needs (such as paper and banknote paper), a few large state-owned factories are still under planned management, and only in recent years have they made substantive reforms. Other parts of the paper industry, like its subordinate light industry system, are the earliest marketization in the reform. As a result, numerous small paper mills have sprung up. Only when the pollution caused by these small and medium-sized paper mills has endangered the survival of the vast downstream areas, the paper industry has attracted the deep concern of the state and society. The experience of 20 years since the reform and opening-up has proved that China's current market still cultivates a non commercialized paper industry. The three major events that took place in China's paper industry in 1996 undoubtedly made this year a watershed and turning point in the history of China's paper industry. In this year, China's paper industry really felt the great pressure of foreign competition and the serious problems existing in China's paper industry. "Wolf" is really coming! Come too soon, come too suddenly, do not have time to reflect too much, can only rush to fight. These three major events happened almost at the same time: the first occurred within China's paper industry: the state began to seriously and severely strengthen the requirements for paper mills to control pollution, and really began to shut down small-scale and heavily polluted paper mills in batches. The second is that "foreign paper" began to violently impact the Chinese market this year, and the Chinese enterprises that suffered from it were forced to ask the government to take up the weapon of "anti-dumping". This is China's "first" anti-dumping, which happened in the paper industry. The third major event is the "aircraft carrier" entering China - the large multinational companies of the world's paper industry have launched a series of strategic investment actions in China. Their large scale, far-reaching goals, advanced equipment and management have stunned our domestic counterparts and made them sigh at the "aircraft carrier". The "golden light group" comes from developing countries, which makes us feel ashamed and think deeply that it is time for China's paper industry to reflect on itself. China's paper industry is finally unable to "mix up". However, unlike most processing industries, which are not available in digital display, China's paper industry has almost never had a situation of excess production capacity. Before 1995, the supply and demand relationship of the domestic paper industry was still roughly balanced within the scope of "self-sufficiency" in terms of total volume, and the import and export volume was small. In the past two years, "foreign paper" has impacted on medium and high-grade paper, Competitiveness lies in quality and cost (although this "anti-dumping" case has been ruled, it is undeniable that its cost competitiveness still constitutes a supporting factor for "dumping"). The reason why China's paper industry can not "mix" is that it is like suddenly discovering that the "wolf" (the paper industry that has been and continues to be modernized in the world) is really coming! In contrast, the modernization of China's paper industry has hardly started at all, which is far behind the modernization of most other industries in China. The "well-off" situation of China's paper industry for decades may instead be one of the reasons for its backwardness. No wonder a paper industry expert from overseas said, "from our perspective, China has no paper industry." "According to our standards, the existing paper mills should be leveled and rebuilt." After knowing something about the paper industry, we heard that this gentleman's words were neither arrogant nor mean. The development of China's paper industry in the past half century has avoided the so-called international mainstream route that must be supported by huge investment and rich forest resources from beginning to end. Although this has aroused the enthusiasm of investing in the paper industry in various aspects under the block by block system, generally ensured the domestic continuous growth of paper demand, and supported the national priority development strategy of heavy chemical industry, it has also paid a heavy price: the ultra-low industrial quality of China's paper industry and the inestimable pollution damage to the environment. The survival of China's paper industry is suddenly facing a serious threat of double standards, namely, domestic environmental protection standards and international competition standards. This makes the strategic restructuring of China's paper industry not only affect the overall situation and touch the root, but also the time is urgent and can not be postponed. China's paper industry must thoroughly rethink its development path and re formulate its development strategy, which in particular requires a long-term national strategy. The task of this report is not to formulate the strategic planning of China's paper industry, but to explore the guiding ideology and possible strategic choices of China's paper industry development strategy. Therefore, based on the research of Lu Mai and he Liping, this report focuses on the following three issues: first, is China facing a survival crisis as the third largest paper producer in the world—— Is there a paper industry in China? 2、 Will China soon become the largest country in the world paper industry—— Does China want paper? 3、 Is it possible for China to become a world paper power—— Where is the way out for China's paper industry? 1、 Does the third largest country in paper industry have paper industry? China is already a big country in the paper industry. During the rapid economic growth that has lasted for two decades, the output of a series of basic industries and traditional industrial products in China has leapt to the forefront of the world. Many modern industries have also made amazing development, and China's comprehensive national strength has greatly increased by an order of magnitude. Therefore, "it is predicted that China will become the fifth largest economic power in the world in 2000, the second or third largest economic power in the world from 2010 to 2021, and the first largest economic power in 2050. Even proud Americans believe that" in the next century, only China and the United States will be

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