CISA predicted that steel prices would not rise, b

CISA predicts that steel prices will not rise, but insiders say they want to rise sharply

since this year, the state has significantly strengthened environmental protection. The previous policy of "big thunder and small rain" no longer exists, but is replaced by the practical work of "real knife and real gun". In the face of such a "strong" environmental protection policy, steel enterprises have once again become the target of public criticism. Especially after the introduction of the "2 + 26" urban production restriction policy, the market was in a panic, including surprise, suspicion and speculation. However, as the heating season approaches, the production restriction measures are opened in Wu'an area in advance. From the implementation of the steel plant, the environmental protection is stronger than expected, and it is almost impossible to muddle through

it is reported that since the national day, steel enterprises in Wu'an have successively entered the state of shutdown and production restriction according to the sewage discharge standard in the heating season. According to the market research data, as of the 13th, the total volume of blast furnace maintenance in Wu'an area was about 22070 cubic meters, an increase of 15920 cubic meters compared with that before the festival, and the operating rate of blast furnace was only 29.15% (this data includes some capacity withdrawn in the early stage). It is precisely because of such intensity of production restriction that the price of Wu'an wire rod rises after the national day. However, due to the impact of Shanxi low price wire rod, and the screw steel futures do not give strength, then Wuan wire rod suck down trend. However, from then on, it is not difficult to see that the steel enterprises that have been shut down and limited production are very willing to support the price

as the heating season approaches, the "2 + 26" urban sewage production restriction policy will be started one after another, among which the steel enterprises in Hebei, Shanxi, Henan, Shandong and other places will be greatly affected, and the steel production is bound to decline significantly internationally. At that time, the steel enterprises in these regions may collectively start the price promotion mode. At the same time, the terminal market will also be severely restricted, most construction sites will be forced to shut down, and the situation of low supply and demand of steel will be formed, among which building materials will be most affected. However, it is worth noting that some construction sites in the north will be shut down in winter in previous years, and the shutdown of large-scale physical education innovation in steel mills is the first time, especially those materials whose shape is not convenient for hardness test. Therefore, the shutdown of steel mills will have a greater impact on supply and demand. In addition, due to the construction period limit of the construction site, the four-month shutdown will inevitably make the construction period tight. Therefore, after the heating season, the phenomenon of catching up with the progress of the construction site may occur intensively, and the demand for building materials will be released

the expectation that the demand for building materials will increase significantly after the end of the heating season has been basically recognized by most businesses, so businesses will be more willing to store in winter at the end of this year than in previous years. In the case of large-scale shutdown and production restriction of steel mills, the exertion of the "reservoir" power of steel traders will inevitably lead to the situation of short supply in the steel market. Therefore, the steel price is likely to rise at this time